UDC 332.6
UDC 332.7
UDC 338.1
UDC 519.8
CSCSTI 06.61
The article discusses the forecasting of the market value of residential real estate, with an emphasis on one-room apartments in the Vyborg district of St. Petersburg. The author compares classical econometric forecasting models such as ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) and VAR (Vector Autoregression) with a non-classical forecasting method such as the stochastic binomial model. The results show that the econometric model MA (3) demonstrates the smallest absolute forecasting error, which indicates its possible practical application. Special attention is paid to the relationship between the market and cadastral value of real estate. The cadastral value depends on the market value with a certain time lag. The market value of real estate is more sensitive to changes in supply and demand, as well as to external economic factors, which leads to discrepancies with the results of the assessment of SCV. The results of the study emphasize the importance of accurate forecasting for real estate market participants, allowing them to better understand price dynamics and minimize the temporary discrepancy between cadastral and market value.
forecasting, market value, cadastral value, residential housing, econometric models, stochastic binomial model
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